Hail forecasts in your state generated by National Weather Service (NWS)
Understand the insights and stay in the know
Automatically updated hail storm forecasts that highlight opportunities or risk
in your area.
When it comes to hail storms, our hail forecast allows you to detect concerning
or high-risk weather conditions on a current and probabilistic level.
Day One Hail Forecast
The map displayed at The Hail Reporter is always the most recent generated by NWS. This is a forecast specifically for hail and does not include the likelihood of the occurrence of high-risk winds or tornadoes. The map in this forecast is the most accurate that NWS produces for hail.
NWS highlights the forecast area where the likelihood of hail in the present day is greater than or equal to 5% with a brown/gold outline. A dark blue outline represents areas of a 15% likelihood, and a red outline represents a 30% likelihood. On rare occasions, a 45% likelihood exists, and even more unlikely is a 60% likelihood.
NWS has two categories:
- Severe weather, which includes wind, tornado, thunderstorm, and hail.
- Extreme severe weather, which includes F2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 65 knots, or large hail 2 inches or greater in diameter. If the forecaster believes that there is a 10% or greater chance that extreme severe weather will occur on Day One, the outline of the area in question will be filled with hatch marks. Otherwise, no hatched area will appear on the map.
Previous Forecast (6 Hours Ago) & Previous Forecast (12 Hours Ago)
Because hail forecasting
is not a perfect science and forecasts often evolve throughout the day, it is
useful to be able to compare the current forecast for Day One with previous
versions of the Day One forecast.
For example, during the morning, there may be a large area of a 30% likelihood
forecast. However, in the early afternoon, the forecast is revised to show only
a 5% area where the 30% had previously existed. With this Previous Forecast
feature, our users can see the progression of the forecasts throughout the day.
It is broken down into two views – one from 6 hours ago and the other from
12 hours ago
Day Two Probabilistic
NWS forecast maps for days 2-8 do not specifically show the likelihood of hail, but give an indication of severe weather, which may include tornadoes, thunderstorms, high winds, and hail.
The Day Two Probabilistic map shows probabilities of these values: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%.
As a general rule, the higher the likelihood of severe weather, the higher the chances are that hail will occur. The Day Two forecast is not generally updated as often as the Day One Hail forecast, but it does sometimes evolve throughout the day. Therefore, we recommend checking it two or three times a day – especially if our users are looking for an updated idea of what may happen the following day.
Day Three Probabilistic
Like the Day
Two Probabilistic map, the Day Three map does not specifically address the
likelihood of hail, but of severe weather on a general level, which may include
tornadoes, thunderstorms, high winds, and hail. This map may also evolve
throughout the day.
Unlike the Day One and Day Two maps, the Day Three map will never show a 60%
likelihood, as it is impossible to forecast such a likelihood so far in
advance. To see even a 60% forecast on Day One is very rare.
Days 4-8 Probabilistic
This map is useful as an indicator of the current prediction for what will happen. It is important to note that when a prediction repeats itself for several days, with each day’s map reflecting the likelihood of severe weather, those predictions more often prove accurate than not.
However, it is also important to point out that in a period in which no severe weather has been forecast or observed for several weeks, a very high probability of severe weather still can pop up suddenly with little warning – and in days closer to today than 4-8 days out.
Current National Radar Loop
This standard NWS map shows a loop of the last 4 hours of radar data. It also includes “categorical” outlines, which are more general than the outlines used for the prediction of severe weather.
Current Satellite Infrared
This NWS map is helpful as a supplement to the Current National Radar Loop map. It helps ours users better understand the temperature differences along weather front lines. As severe weather normally develops at the coming together of warm and cold air masses, this map helps identify whether such areas exist during the present time.
Current Severe Weather Watches
This map displays active weather watches, including those for tornadoes and thunderstorms. On a day when hail is forecast, it quite often happens in areas currently under such watches. If this map doesn’t show any watches, it is likely that today’s hail is unlikely to occur.
Hail Reports During the Last 3 Hours
This is NWS’s standard map showing points
where hail, wind, and tornado reports have originated over the last 3 hours.
The Hail Reporter’s “Hail Reports” page shows a superior and
interactive map of hail storm reports, but the NWS map is shown here as a quick
reference for recent activity. This allows our users to view the day’s hail
storms develop in real time.
Seeing the hail that has developed in only the
last three hours can be a clear indication of what will happen next.
These maps also display wind and tornado reports as hail fall, which is useful as the likelihood of hail fall often accompanies the updrafts and downdrafts associated with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. This is not to suggest that where there is wind, there will be hail, but it is helpful to our clients and users to be exposed to the overall weather patterns over time.
All Today’s Hail Reports
Similar to the Last 3 Hours map, it is helpful to view all the hail, wind, and tornado reports from the present day – especially to see whether all the forecasted areas have been affected by hail.
Yesterday’s Hail Reports
As hail outbreaks often span more than one day, looking back at the previous day’s reports help our users compare and better understand the outbreak’s progression. The Hail Reporter begins every new day at midnight CST (Central Standard Time).
While the email alerts come in handy, they don’t really answer the question of what the weather conditions are likely to be over the next few days.
Get deeper insights to hail reports and predictions – all in one place.